Polymarket Intelligence API · Resolution Risk

import { wrapFetchWithPayment } from "@x402/fetch";
import { privateKeyToAccount } from "viem/accounts";

const account = privateKeyToAccount(process.env.PRIVATE_KEY);
const fetchWithPay = wrapFetchWithPayment(fetch, account);

const res = await fetchWithPay("https://api.polym.uk/resolution-risk", {
  method: "GET",
});
const data = await res.json();

curl -X GET \
  "https://api.polym.uk/resolution-risk" \
  -H "X-PAYMENT: <signed x402 payment>"

{
  "asOf": "2026-08-31T11:03:16.092Z",
  "byCategory": [
    {
      "category": "Geopolitics",
      "disputeInsufficientSample": false,
      "disputeRatePctChronological": 2.3,
      "disputeRatePctHighVolume": 35.2,
      "elevated": true,
      "flipInsufficientSample": false,
      "flipRatePct": 8,
      "lockupHoursIfDisputed": 119,
      "lockupHoursPerMarket": 42
    }
  ],
  "caveats": [
    "SHOWCASE, NOT THE PAID RESPONSE: what you see is one category row of the base-rate table. byCategory is cut to 1 of the 6 rows this response carried. clarity and flipOverall are the aggregate over the whole response, so they are null here and populated in a paid response. Nothing is masked or invented: every value is a dated measurement, kept so you can read the shape, the units and the field semantics. The schema published beside it is complete; a paid call returns the complete set.",
    "EXAMPLE ONLY: a paid response captured from api.polym.uk on 2026-09-01, then frozen. A live response carries its own asOf and current values.",
    "Category BASE RATE, not a forecast for any specific market. On-chain and Gamma fact, not an accusation.",
    "Dispute: two samples. The absolute figure varies several-fold; the signal is the relative RANK. Flip and clarity cells are small and directional, and insufficientSample is flagged when so.",
    "Category is a title heuristic and 'Other' is the residual bucket. DVM vote concentration is deferred: cited from press coverage, not recomputed here."
  ],
  "clarity": null,
  "dataDegraded": false,
  "elevatedRiskCategories": [
    "Geopolitics"
  ],
  "flipAsOf": "2026-08-31T11:56:03.265Z",
  "flipOverall": null,
  "howToRead": "TWO axes per category: dispute (how often markets like this are disputed at UMA) by flip (when disputed, how often the outcome REVERSES). Flip often INVERTS the dispute ranking. clarity: a title that states a checkable threshold is disputed less often than one that does not, and this is orthogonal to category. Read from the TITLE only; the resolution rules are not read."
}