market-probability · Probability

import { wrapFetchWithPayment } from "@x402/fetch";
import { privateKeyToAccount } from "viem/accounts";

const account = privateKeyToAccount(process.env.PRIVATE_KEY);
const fetchWithPay = wrapFetchWithPayment(fetch, account);

const res = await fetchWithPay("https://x402.fenixfoundry.com/probability", {
  method: "POST",
  headers: { "Content-Type": "application/json" },
  body: JSON.stringify({
    "maxMarkets": 4,
    "q": "Will the Fed cut rates before September 2026?"
  }),
});
const data = await res.json();

curl -X POST \
  "https://x402.fenixfoundry.com/probability" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"maxMarkets":4,"q":"Will the Fed cut rates before September 2026?"}' \
  -H "X-PAYMENT: <signed x402 payment>"

{
  "asOf": "2026-07-31T12:00:00.000Z",
  "attribution": "Implied probabilities and resolution status are derived from public Polymarket and Kalshi market data by x402.fenixfoundry.com. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or a data feed of either venue. Informational only, not investment advice.",
  "confidence": 0.82,
  "divergence": 0.05,
  "markets": [
    {
      "closeTime": "2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "id": "fed-rate-cut-september-2026",
      "liquidity": 412000,
      "matchScore": 0.91,
      "probability": 0.64,
      "question": "Will the Fed cut interest rates before September 2026?",
      "status": "open",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-cut-september-2026",
      "venue": "polymarket",
      "volume": 1850000
    },
    {
      "closeTime": "2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "id": "KXFEDDECISION-26SEP",
      "liquidity": 88000,
      "matchScore": 0.83,
      "probability": 0.59,
      "question": "Fed cuts rates at or before the September 2026 meeting",
      "status": "open",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision-26sep",
      "venue": "kalshi",
      "volume": 240000
    }
  ],
  "probability": 0.6312,
  "query": "Will the Fed cut rates before September 2026?",
  "source": "index"
}